By Than Zaw Oo | March 25, 2026
If you’ve been watching your portfolio this week, you’re probably feeling a bit of whiplash. Just when things started looking calm, markets got hit with a one-two punch: oil prices spiking again and fresh worries about the private credit market.
Let me walk you through what happened – and more importantly, what it means for regular investors.
First, That Oil Price Surge
West Texas Intermediate crude jumped nearly 5% yesterday to settle at $92.35 a barrel. Brent crude? That crossed $104.
Here’s the thing: we’ve been here before. But this time, the catalyst is the escalating conflict between the US-Israel alliance and Iran. Despite President Trump sounding optimistic about negotiations earlier in the day, reports from the ground tell a different story. Tehran is reportedly deploying new munitions – including a missile with a 220-pound warhead that hit Tel Aviv – while the US is sending more troops to the region.
Kristina Hooper from Man Group put it well. She said there’s “a bias toward optimism” because investors want to believe the best news. But that bias can lead to mispricing. In plain English? The market might not be fully pricing in how bad things could get.
Energy stocks were the only real winners yesterday – up over 2%. Meanwhile, real estate and communication services took a beating.
The Private Credit Story That’s Flying Under the Radar
This is the part that actually worries me more than oil prices.
Private credit – that $1.7 trillion corner of finance that’s been booming – is starting to show cracks. Apollo Global Management just capped withdrawals from one of its big non-traded private credit funds. Clients wanted to pull 11.2% of the $25 billion fund. Apollo said no: you can only take 5%.
Ares Management did something similar with a $10.7 billion fund.
If that sounds familiar, it should. It’s the same kind of liquidity crunch we’ve seen before, just in a different part of the financial system.
Evercore ISI analyst Glenn Schorr said something worth paying attention to: while Apollo’s decision is probably doing right by long-term investors, it highlights the pressure building under the surface. Investors have probably priced some of this into the parent company stocks – but how much?
I remember covering the 2008 crisis. The warning signs looked a lot like this: money getting stuck, funds limiting redemptions, and everyone saying “it’s different this time.” Maybe it is. But it’s still worth keeping an eye on.
What Central Banks Are Saying (And Not Saying)
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman basically said what a lot of people didn’t want to hear: interest rates may need to stay higher for longer. And that Middle East conflict? It adds “additional risks” to the inflation outlook.
Translation: don’t expect rate cuts anytime soon.
Across the Atlantic, markets are now pricing in three quarter-point rate hikes from the European Central Bank this year. ECB’s Martins Kazaks warned that if inflation spreads further from the energy sector, they might need to do more.
And in the UK? Citi/YouGov survey shows short-term inflation expectations climbing to 5.4%. That’s not nothing.
Mixed Signals from the US Economy
Here’s where it gets a bit confusing – because not all the data is pointing in the same direction.
The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.4 in March. That beat expectations. Good news, right?
But the Services PMI fell to an 11-month low of 51.1.
So what’s happening? Manufacturing is holding up okay. But the service sector – which is most of the economy – is starting to feel the squeeze. That divergence tells you something about where the pressure points are right now.
Jamie Dimon, as usual, didn’t sugarcoat it. Speaking in Washington, the JPMorgan Chase CEO said the Iran war makes things “riskier in the short run, because we don’t know the outcome of it.”
So What Should Investors Do?
Look, I’m not going to sit here and tell you to buy or sell anything. That’s not the point of this newsletter.
But here’s what I’m watching:
1. Oil prices – if WTI stays above $90, inflation pressures aren’t going away
2. Private credit headlines – more redemption limits? That’s a yellow flag
3. The VIX – it’s sitting in the mid-20s. That’s not panic territory, but it’s not calm either
One thing I’ve learned covering markets for years: when there’s this much uncertainty, the worst thing you can do is make emotional moves. Take a breath. Look at your time horizon. And maybe don’t check your portfolio every hour.
What I’m Watching Today
Asian markets are digesting Australian inflation data this morning. No major surprises yet. But all eyes are on the Middle East – any escalation could move oil again before the US open.
Have questions or thoughts on this week’s market moves? Drop me a note. I read every reply.
