By Than Zaw Oo | March 25, 2026
If you’re holding tech stocks right now, today probably stung a little.
The Nasdaq tumbled nearly 1% yesterday, and this morning’s pre-market action isn’t looking much better. Everyone’s asking me the same question: is this the start of something bigger, or just a bump in the road?
Let me share what I’m seeing.
What Happened to Tech?
The numbers first: Nasdaq Composite fell 0.84% to 21,761.9. That’s the third down day in the last four sessions.
But here’s what actually caught my attention. It wasn’t just a broad sell-off. The damage was concentrated in a specific corner of tech – the AI infrastructure names.
Nvidia? Down 2.3%.
AMD? Down 1.8%.
Super Micro Computer? Down 3.1%.
These aren’t random moves. There’s a story underneath them.
The AI Reality Check We’ve Been Waiting For
I’ve been covering tech for about a decade now. And one pattern I’ve seen play out again and again: after a massive hype cycle, there’s always a reality check.
We’re seeing that play out with AI right now.
For the past 18 months, investors have been throwing money at anything with “AI” in the pitch deck. But this week, analysts at Goldman Sachs put out a note that made people pause. Their argument? The infrastructure spending on AI – we’re talking hundreds of billions – isn’t showing clear returns yet.
One line from their report stuck with me: “The market may be pricing in AI adoption faster than the enterprise is actually adopting it.”
In plain English? Companies are buying AI chips and building data centers. But the actual revenue from AI products? That’s taking longer than expected.
I talked to a friend who runs IT for a Fortune 500 company last week. His words: “We’re experimenting with AI. But we’re not writing big checks yet.” I suspect he’s not alone.
Then There’s the Private Credit Thing
I mentioned this in my last piece, but it’s worth repeating because it affects tech more than people realize.
Private credit funds – the ones that have been lending to all those private AI startups and late-stage tech companies – are starting to limit withdrawals. Apollo and Ares both capped redemptions this week.
Here’s why this matters for tech stocks: if private credit dries up, a lot of those well-funded AI startups suddenly can’t raise their next round. And if they can’t raise, they start cutting costs. And if they cut costs, they stop buying Nvidia chips.
It’s a domino effect. We’re not there yet. But I’m watching.
The Fed Factor (Because It’s Always the Fed, Right?)
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said something yesterday that basically poured cold water on the idea of rate cuts anytime soon.
“Additional risks to the inflation outlook” – that’s how she described the Middle East conflict.
Now, here’s my take. Tech stocks have been riding high partly because everyone assumed rates would be coming down by mid-2026. If that assumption gets pushed to 2027? Tech valuations – which are based on future earnings – will need to adjust.
I’m not saying that’s happening tomorrow. But it’s the question no one’s asking loudly enough.
What I’m Actually Watching Right Now
I don’t have a crystal ball. Anyone who tells you they know exactly where the market is going is either lying or selling something.
But here are three things I’m paying attention to:
1. Nvidia’s next move.
If NVDA breaks below $850 support, that’s a signal. If it holds, maybe this is just profit-taking.
2. Private credit headlines.
One more fund limiting redemptions? That’s not a yellow flag anymore. That’s orange.
3. Oil prices.
WTI at $92 is already baked in. If it hits $95? That’s when the math for corporate earnings starts changing.
A Quick Story
I remember sitting in a trading floor back in 2022 when the market was bleeding. Everyone was panicking. One of the old-timers there – a guy who’d been through dot-com and 2008 – leaned over and said something I never forgot:
“The market doesn’t go down because things are bad. The market goes down because things are worse than people expected.”
That’s where we are right now. The Iran conflict? Expected. Oil at $92? Partially expected. Private credit stress? Not fully expected.
That gap between “what people think” and “what’s actually happening” – that’s where the real risk is.
So What Do I Do?
I’m not going to tell you to buy or sell. I don’t know your situation.
But here’s what I’m doing with my own portfolio:
– Not selling tech positions I’ve held for years
– Taking some profits off the table on recent AI trades (I’m up, so I’m locking some in)
– Keeping more cash than usual – about 15% – because I want dry powder if things get messy
– Not touching leveraged ETFs. Just not worth the stress right now.
Today’s Numbers at a Glance
| Index/Asset | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6,556.37 | -0.37% |
| Nasdaq | 21,761.90 | -0.84% |
| Nvidia | $872.40 | -2.3% |
| WTI Crude | $92.35 | +4.79% |
| VIX (Fear Index) | 24.80 | +8.2% |
As of March 24 closing
The Bottom Line
Is this the start of a major tech correction? Maybe. But I’ve seen enough false alarms to know that no one can call the top.
What I do know is this: the market is starting to price in risks that weren’t being discussed a month ago. That’s healthy in the long run. But in the short run? It can be painful.
Breathe. Zoom out. And maybe don’t check your Robinhood every five minutes.
Got a tech stock you’re worried about? Drop me a note.
